Is Amazon buying Netflix?

Image of Amazon tablet Press Conference announcement September 28th

People were baffled when Netflix created a separate service for customers who wanted to watch “streaming” movies online. (This week Netflix shifted its core business — where DVDs are mailed to your home in a red Netflix envelope — into a separate subsidiary.) But at least one analyst thinks it’s a smart move that could pay off for the company’s investors — because it makes it easier for Netflix to merge with Amazon!

“If Amazon were to acquire only Netflix’s streaming business, it could triple the size of its content library, and gain traction as an industry leader…” argues Michael Pachter at Wedbush Securities. Originally he’d assigned an “underperform” rating to shares of Netflix, but this week he’s switched that to an “outperform” rating. “Netflix’s financial flexibility is quite limited, while Amazon’s is virtually unlimited,” Pachter argues. With billions of dollars in new money, the Amazon/Netflix hybrid could acquire the rights to stream even more movies and video content online.

But of course, that’s just the beginning. Amazon really wants to stream movies to your Kindle — or at least, to a next-generation Kindle with a color screen that’s been optimized for video. Any day now, Amazon’s expected to announce a fancy iPad-style “tablet” computer, a touchscreen device which displays ebooks (like the original Kindle), but which can also handle movies. A blogger at TechCrunch claims to have seen a prototype, which offers a slick “carousel” interface where you rotate a circle of (color) thumbnail images that represent your movies, apps, mp3s , or books.

It’s a brilliant marketing move, because they’d all be purchased through Amazon.com. And Amazon already has a vast library of “content” available for purchase, including ebooks, music downloads, and online movies. They’d basically create a slick new device for delivering all that content to their customers — and all that content would also help them to first sell the device! (Apple’s iPod was successful because of all the songs available in the iTune store, while the iPad’s received complaints because there aren’t enough ebooks in its iBookstore.)

I think the Kindle convinced Amazon that a great device can create a big wave of new loyal customers, plus a lot of new sales. Amazon has billions of dollars to spend, plus a payroll filled with clever engineers, so they’ve got everything they need to create the next big and exciting gadget. Not everyone’s convinced that they’ll stock their content libraries with Netflix’s streaming movies. (In the comments at ZDNet, someone suggested NetFlix might form a super-company instead with Hulu.com, teaming up to offer an even bigger library of online video!)

But there’s one last piece of information that suggests that Amazon’s planning something big, and that it’s going to happen this Wednesday. “Press invites just went out for an Amazon press conference next Wednesday in New York,” reported a blog about technology at MSNBC.

It could be an announcement that Amazon has acquired Netflix, but the blogger speculates that “doesn’t go to New York for anything but the biggest of product launches anyhow. So we’re going to assume that the long-awaited tablet is finally here.

“And if the rumors are true, boy, will it be an earthshaker.”

When is Amazon Releasing the Kindle 4?

shh - finger to lips - secret rumor

I think I’ve discovered a secret. The source for a big rumor about Amazon’s next Kindle now appears to have changed their story!

It’s something I stumbled across while reviewing all the articles about what Amazon is planning next for the Kindle. Strong rumors suggest that Amazon is planning to release a new iPad-style tablet — but three weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal also reported two additional rumors. Citing people “familiar with Amazon’s thinking,” the Journal reported that Amazon also planned to release two new versions of the Kindle. One of these Kindles would have a touchscreen (like the newest version of the Nook that was recently released by Barnes and Noble). And the Journal also reported that by the end of September, Amazon would release an “improved and cheaper” version of the Kindle.

But strangely, the second claim is no longer appearing in the Journal’s article!

You can still see that original claim being quoted in articles around the web — even though the Journal has now removed it from its site. (For example, this article from PC Magazine quotes the Journal article as saying Amazon would release “an improved and cheaper adaptation of the current Kindle.”) Does this mean Amazon won’t be releasing a cheaper version of the Kindle along with the touch-screen version? My guess is the newspaper’s source later contacted them with a correction, or with updated information — and the Journal quietly edited their original piece to reflect the new information.

I could be wrong about the significance of this change, so consider it a new rumor about an old rumor. But an even more important question is when will Amazon release the next version of the Kindle. And I also have my own theory about that.

It’s easy to see if you check the dates for when Amazon’s released past upgrades to their Kindle. In November of 2007, Amazon released their first Kindle — and then released a newer version just 15 months later (the Kindle 2). That was in February of 2009, and nearly the same amount of time then elapsed before the release of the Kindle 3 in August of 2010. (The total time between the two Kindles was now 18 months.) Of course, Amazon released a slight upgrade in May of 2011 — the cheaper Kindle with Special Offers. But if Amazon sticks to their original pattern, they’ll release “the Kindle 4” within 15 to 18 months from the time that they released the last Kindle. That would mean we’d seen the Kindle 4 between November and February.

But of course, Amazon would want to release their new Kindle before the big pre-Christmas shopping season. (Once an analyst calculated that 47% of the people who owned a Kindle actually received it as a gift!) So to catch the big wave of shoppers, Amazon would almost certainly move up the release date of the Kindle 4 so it’s available for the big “Black Friday” sales that happen on the day after Thanksgiving. The only real question is whether they’d release the Kindle on that crucial November shopping day — or a few weeks earlier, so that shoppers could hear about it first in a big wave of pre-Thanksgiving publicity. And it turns out that my estimate is within eight weeks of what the Wall Street Journal predicted — that the next version of the Kindle would be released before the end of September.

But then again, the Journal also reported — and then apparently retracted — a claim that Amazon would release a new Kindle which was “improved and cheaper”.

The Kindle 4 Will Be Released within 10 Weeks!

Dog licking a Kindle from Amazon TV ad

Some time in the next 10 weeks, Amazon will release two new versions of the Kindle. That’s according to The Wall Street Journal, which cites “people familiar with the matter.”

And the even bigger news is their sources confirmed what everybody already suspected. Amazon’s also going to release an iPad-style color touchscreen device, and it’s going to happen before the end of September!

One new Kindle will have a touch-screen, according to the article — while the other Kindle will be “improved and cheaper,” according to the Journal‘s sources. Neither one of the two Kindles will have a color screen, which is kind of a relief. They’ll both still have the familiar e-ink screens that we’ve all gotten so comfortable with.

The tablet will have a nine-inch screen — smaller than the iPad — and I’m assuming it will run the apps that Amazon’s selling in their Android app store. The tablet won’t have a camera, but it will be optimized for the content you can buy at Amazon — like music files, movies and video downloads, and, of course, e-books from the Kindle store. Without a camera, someone suggested in the comments on the article, the device will probably be much cheaper.

“…if i were to guess it feels like Amazon is trying to strip it down and bring it in at the lowest cost possible. They’re more concerned with their core businesses (e-books, video, and a web store) than they are with creating a video chat tool.

The Wall Street Journal didn’t have any more details, but it’s still very exciting news. And I think that excitement bodes well for the prospects for this new Android tablet. I’m not the only one who thinks so, judging by the comments on the article.

“If Amazon can streamline the device and bring it in under $300, I think it’ll sell like hotcakes.”

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Inside Jeff Bezos’s Head: Amazon’s Android Tablet?

Inside the head of Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos - what is he thinking

I think I’ve learned a secret about Amazon. On June 7, Amazon held its annual shareholder’s meeting, and I just took a closer look at my notes. They offer a fascinating peek inside the mind of Jeff Bezos. But can they answer the question about what’s in Amazon’s future?

It seemed like the shareholder’s had one question on their mind: is Amazon building an iPad-style tablet? No one asked the question directly, but several seemed to ask it indirectly. For example, one shareholder asked Bezos how Amazon’s online retail business would look in 10 years. And it seemed like Bezos took the bait.

“One thing that I think will change is that we will see way better mobile devices, even than we have today,” he told the crowd. And then he switched to a historical perspective. “If you look back five years — try using the web on a mobile device five years ago. It was an extraordinarily painful experience. “Today it’s still a marginal experience, in many cases,” he said significantly. “If you have a good WiFi connection and a very good, you know, uh, smartphone or tablet, it’s now getting to be a pretty good situation. But with the average phone that people have and the average cellular connection that people have, the mobile browsing experience is still a pretty marginal one.

“That is going to change.”

Maybe he was just talking generally about the progress of handheld devices, since he also predicted that “we’re going to continue to have pervasive wireless bandwidth that’s going to continue to increase. And the form factors of the phones — the displays, the battery life — smart phones are going to get smarter. They’re going to get better. They’re going to be unbelievably good as web browsing devices.” And then he hit on Amazon’s real stake in the creation of better mobile devices. “That is a huge tailwind for Amazon in our retail business, and so we’re very excited about that.”

But sure enough, next he stopped talking about smartphones and started talking about tablets — while still focusing on its impact on Amazon’s retail business. “I feel the same way about tablets. Most of our customers shop with us from laptops or desktop computers. But people have a different posture with tablets — like, lean back on their sofa. And people leaning back on their sofa, buying things from Amazon, is another tailwind for our business. I’m very excited about that.”

There was a similar moment when another shareholder asked a question about Yahoo’s new “cloud” service (where digital music and video are stored online for access through multiple devices). Maybe that’s all Bezos was talking about — but I wondered if he was thinking about the possibility of playing music and video on Amazon tablet devices. Bezos said that “integrating those consumer experiences, those digital media experiences, into the cloud is something that will be very helpful — for consumers.” Whether it’s consumer-facing or developer-facing, “these are big markets that can support lots of winners,” Bezos said. “And so as has been our practice from the very beginning, we will stay heads-down, focus on the customer experience, and…expect that there will be other winners as well.”

I could be seeing what I want to see in everything that Jeff Bezos said — but Amazon’s other shareholders seemed curious too. The next question raised some of the same issues in more general terms, asking simply “Should we think of you as a technology company, an infrastructure company, an e-commerce company?”

Yes,” Bezos replied. And of course, if you’re reading between the lines, it’s easy to see the same pattern in his answer.

“In the last six years, as we’ve built Amazon Web services, we’ve also become a company that provides technology. Now we sell technology, which really we hadn’t done. We’d been users of our own proprietary technology, and now we’re on both sides of that.

“And I like both sides of that….”

New Magazines for your Kindle

National Geographic magazine subscription on a Kindle screenshot

I’ve been surprised how many new magazines have suddenly come out with Kindle editions. This spring I noticed the arrival of National Geographic magazine, which you can read on your Kindle for just $1.99 a month. And it’s one of several new magazines sporting a new feature — the ability to read the magazine with color images using a Kindle app on an Android tablet or smartphone!

It’s a sign that Amazon may be striking deals to make color magazine content available for the (still-rumored) release of a color tablet-sized device.

There’s several other magazines in the Kindle store which are now also listed as available on Android devices. Science News — delivered every two weeks — has lavish color images (along with tantalizing tidbits of news). Smithsonian Magazine — delivered monthly — is published by the famous Washington D.C.-based museum, and supplements its exhibits by covering “the arts, environment, sciences and popular culture” (according to its description at Amazon.com). All three of these magazines are available for around $2.00 — and you don’t even have to sign up for a subscription. Each one offers a 14-day free trial — but you can also purchase a single issue.

It’s easy to forget about magazine subscriptions when you’re busy reading e-books on your Kindle. But here’s a list of some of the new and interesting magazines that are now available on the Kindle.

E-books are rocking the publishing industry, so they’re a constant presence in Publisher’s Weekly. (The magazine describes itself as “the definitive professional resource covering every aspect of book publishing and book selling.”) It’s a must-read for people in the industry, and for more than 100 years the magazine has compiled an annual list of the best-selling books. It was a bellwether moment when this year, for the first time ever, Publisher’s Weekly began including e-books in theri calculations. A monthly subscription on your Kindle costs $19.99 — though of course, it’s delivered ever week.

Some good magazines about politics are now available on the Kindle. For conservatives, there’s National Review. (I still remember when editor William F. Buckley hosted a talk show on PBS.) For more liberal readers, there’s The New Republic. (One reviewer on Amazon.com said they’d been reading the print version for more than 25 years.) Every two weeks new editions of the magazines are delivered to your Kindle. But if you’re a libertarian — or somewhere in between — there’s also Reason magazine (delivered monthly), which promises “a refreshing alternative to right-wing and left-wing opinion magazines by making a principled case for liberty and individual choice.”

If you’re looking for straight news, the Christian Science Monitor actually publishes a weekly magazine. For business and technology news, there’s Fast Company magazine (available each month on the Kindle for just $2.49) and the Harvard Business Review (delivered monthly for $5.99). Of course, a version of The New Yorker has been available on the Kindle for a while, but there’s other magazines offering news that’s even more specialized. For example, there’s 2600 Magazine: The Hacker Quarterly – and on May 15th, a new magazine appeared in the Kindle Store that was devoted solely to teen idol Justin Bieber. (“Just Justin.”)

Just Justin Bieber magazine on a Kindle

Even if you enjoy reading mystery short stories, the Kindle offers two of the best monthly collections — Ellery Queen’s Mystery Magazine and Alfred Hitchcock’s Mystery Magazine. And if you’re an aspiring writing, there’s Poets and Writers Magazine (as well as The New York Review of Books.)

And who knows? Maybe soon you’ll be able to read these magazines on a new Amazon tablet!

What’s Behind Amazon’s New Hiring Spree?

help_wanted sign

Amazon is suddenly hiring new employees for customer service centers in six different states. Is this yet-another clue that Amazon’s planning to release a tablet-sized computer soon?

Just Wednesday Amazon announced they were building a new customer fulfillment center in Washington — 500,000-square-foot facility creating “several hundred” new full-time jobs. But last week Amazon also tucked six different press releases onto their web site, each one advertising a new hiring campaign at Amazon’s order fulfillment centers in one of six different states. (“Candidates should be highly motivated with drive, ambition and a passion for providing customers a first-class shopping experience.”) The press releases cite new hiring in each of the following regions.

Phoenix, Arizona
Goodyear Arizona
Coffeyville, Kansas
New Castle, Delaware
Fernley, Nevada
Las Vegas, Nevada
Kentucky
Pennyslvania

The press releases are identical, except that there’s no mention of any technical support openings in the press release for Kentucky. And in addition, according to the Seattle Times “Amazon is looking for hundreds of additional technology workers for its expanding headquarters complex in Seattle’s South Lake Union neighborhood.

It’s hard to imagine why Amazon suddenly needs so many new employees all across the country — unless they’re anticipating a sudden spike in purchasing. And it seems to me that that “trigger” could be the release of a tablet-sized computing device. Amazon would pre-load the devices with a slick shopping application, and would probably offer ways to connect the devices into their discount shipping program. If Amazon were planning the release of such a device, they’d definitely want to build up their ability to fulfill the extra orders!

And there’s one reason why Amazon would need service centers all across the country. Amazon’s “Prime” shipping program specifically promises free two-day shipping on orders — and a discount on the even speedier one-day shipping. Maybe Amazon anticipates a flood of new tablet owners signing up for the Prime” program, making it even more important to fill orders from a nearby state, ensuring the speedy delivery times while reducing Amazon’s own shipping costs.

Of course, it’s possible that Amazon.com is just expanding beyond its current capability. “Many years ago, Amazon’s requirements reached a point where many of our systems could no longer be served by any commercial solution,” Jeff Bezos revealed Wednesday in a letter to shareholders, because “our key data services store many petabytes of data and handle millions of requests per second.” Maybe he’s learned a lesson — especially since this year Amazon’s sales have been 38% higher than they were for the same period a year ago. But it’s also possible that he’s learned a different lesson from Amazon’s experience with the Kindle.

Namely, the value of selling consumers a really cool device which lets them buy things from Amazon.com.

Win A Free Tablet from Amazon!

New Amazon Android tablet computer contest

With all these rumors about a tablet-sized version of the Kindle, it’s nice to see that Amazon is also thinking about tablets. Monday they announced a special contest where you could win a tablet computer from Motorola (running the Android operating system). “In celebration of the many ways Amazon Prime members take advantage of FREE Two-Day Shipping on millions of items, we’re giving away some popular Prime-eligible items from A to Z,” a promotional announcement explained.

“This week A is for Android…”

To enter the contest, point your web browser to Facebook.com/Amazon to enter (and then click on the Sweepstakes link). The form asks for your e-mail address, name, and phone number — but of course, there’s a small catch. “If you click ‘Allow”’in the Request for Permission window that appears after you click ‘Enter,’ you will be providing ongoing consent to the Amazon.com Sweepstakes/Contest application, which may offer other sweepstakes and contests in addition to this one,” Amazon explains on the page. It’s not as bad as it sounds, since “You may change this consent at any time through your Facebook privacy settings.”

And it turns out that Amazon isn’t going to contact me 26 times, to remind each week about its A to Z contest. (“Come back next week to enter again for your chance to win the next prize,” the sweepstakes page urges when you first enter the contest.) Instead the sweepstakes only goes for eight weeks, with eight different items being given away in alphabetical order. So I don’t mind the extra eight reminders, since apparently it means I could end up with a free Android tablet computer! And during the week of May 16th, the prize is even going to be a free Kindle!

The prizes get even better as the contest winds up in June, with a $797 digital Nikon camera (“P” for photography), and then an X-Box the next week (“V” for video games). And Amazon concludes their alphabetical contest with a “Z” item during the week of June 13th — a $1,000 Amazon gift certificate “for your choice of the ‘zillions’ of things you can find at Amazon.com.” But is this also another hint about Amazon’s plans for the Kindle? It’s not just that they’re trying to get people excited about an Android-powered tablet device. They’re trying even harder to excite people about Amazon’s $79-a-year “Prime” shipping service.

One rumor has it that Amazon plans to lower the price of the Amazon Kindle to anyone willing to pay the Prime program’s yearly fee. And now it looks like Amazon is putting some real muscle into promoting the program. Are they seeing this as a stepping stone to something even bigger? It’s got me wondering if Amazon is planning a big announcement in eight weeks, when their Prime-promoting contest finally ends.

Maybe they’re trying to attention to the Prime shipping program — right before they offer Prime subscribers a new, big discount on Kindles this summer.